12/25/06  DALLAS CRIME -- STORY BEHIND THE NUMBERS

The end of the year is once again upon us. We're all waiting with baited breath for the final numbers for Dallas crime rates. Will we be up? Will we be down? While the final numbers aren't yet officially released for a few months, I can tell you that the Dallas is down in crime for 2006. But just barely. Violent crime and all crime will be down by about 2.3%.

This is great news. Even if Dallas is only down less than 1% in crime, it's a feat of amazing proportions. 2005 saw remarkable reductions in crime. There is no doubt that 2005 was one of the best years in recent memory. To match that feat is, in itself, remarkable. Dallas PD managed not only to match the reductions of 2005, but to better those reductions by a few percentage points. The result is a reduction of a few thousand offenses.

The end of the year also brings out the inevitable stories that compare Dallas' crime rate with those of other cities. Some of these stories are from credentialed journalists, who know better, but are under the orders of less-informed editors. Other stories will come from concerned citizens with varying motivations. One or two of these stories will come from people trying to sell you something. Regardless of origin, the comparison of Dallas' crime rate with any other cities is pure bunk.

I'll refer you to the first page of the FBI's crime report, called Crime In America. Every year, the FBI dutifully reminds readers of this report that numbers are numbers, but comparisons are a thing of complexity and not to be attempted. There are several reasons not to make comparisons between cities. Firstly, the causes of crime are complex and somewhat mysterious. Circumstances differ from city to city as does crime rates. One set of circumstances will breed crime like flies in one city, while another city with the same circumstances has a crime drought. Cities have varying resources devoted to crime fighting. There are also differing influences on crime, such as churches, school systems, gun control, alcohol sales, and social services. Every city is unique, as are the causes of crime for each city.

Secondly, the numbers and methods of reporting are not uniform. While the report is the UNIFORM crime report, cities are under no compulsion to follow any guidelines. Some cities don't send any crime stats at all, like Chicago. Yet, Chicago is listed in the crime report just like every other city in America. How does that happen? The FBI estimates the crime rates for those cities. The FBI also estimates the crime rates for cities that do submit numbers, but fail to do so within the deadline.

The comparison of cities based on population is also flawed to the extreme. For example, based purely on crimes per capita, Stockton, California is an awful place to be. They have about 20 crimes per 1,000 people. Compare that to Dallas' 2 per 1,000. The comparison falls apart when you consider that Stockton only has a really small population. But what about Detroit? Its crime rate is sky high. For comparison purposes though, the population of Detroit is fairly small at 600,000. Still, the population figures are only an estimate. The population of Dallas swings wildly from one extreme to another between the hours of 8:00 AM and 8:00 PM. One area of town may be a ghost town during the daylight hours as its inhabitants leave for work. That same area may be a high population area after dark. Ultimately, the population stats given by the FBI are only estimates. They are projections from the last census. The numbers are based on scientific methods, but they are still just estimates. The population tends to be higher.

Lastly, not every city has the capacity to honestly report their crimes. Phoenix, for example, doesn't have an automated reporting system. Officers call offenses into a phone system, where their calls are then manually entered into a record system. Obviously, this is labor intensive. So as offenses backup in the queue, officers dictate into a voice writer system when clerks run out. The backlog can take weeks to clear. Phoenix doesn't have a clear picture of their crime rate, or even their crime trend. They run three to six weeks behind in their understanding of the crime in Phoenix. One crime analyst for Phoenix admitted to me that an aggravated assault report was lost in their system for two years and six months before anyone knew anything about the offense. It was never investigated until the report was found in the system. How can any system like that be trusted to report accurate crime stats?

Los Angeles PD is no better. Their process leaves much to be desired for the accurate reporting of crimes. After a hand-written offense report is made in LA, a detective will determine the UCR code and then submit that report for entry into the electronic system. That is a slight conflict of interest. If a detective has the option of down-grading an offense to get it off his, or her, desk, doesn't that seem like a bit of a temptation? I know that the detectives of LAPD are honest, hard working people. But, the flaws in their system leave their numbers a little suspect. If you want to tell me that a city that is three times the city of Dallas only has 10% more crime than Dallas, I've got a string bridge to sell you.

So you can imagine that drawing solid conclusions from the numbers provided by the FBI could be problematic. Which is exactly what the FBI prints on page one of the yearly report.

But what about the other things you're going to hear this year? You're going to hear that verified response is a failure. I disagree with that as well.

Burglaries are divided into two categories. There are burglaries that occur where people live. Those are classified as a residential burglary. This would include houses, apartments, rental properties and condos. Any other place is a business burglary. So if no one lives there, it's a business. Burglaries of home construction sites are considered business burglaries. Break-ins of vacant houses are considered business burglaries.

One quarter, 25% of all business burglaries in Dallas, are at non-business locations. One in four burglaries of a business in Dallas is at an empty house, apartment or constructions site of a home. What everyone else would consider a residential burglary is counted as a business burglary for UCR cases. These kinds of burglaries have increased disproportionately from other kinds of burglaries. They are up 10% from last year.

Now, you're going to hear that business burglaries are up 4%. That is true. But the increase has nothing to do with alarms. Very few of the business burglary locations ever had a burglar alarm. The increase in business burglaries has more to do with rising copper prices than with verified response.

Where are people going to find copper? Construction sites, maybe? Businesses tend to have larger air conditioning units than residential locations, which is why business burglars have been targeting some of these locations. Air conditioning units of businesses are usually located on the roof of the business, which aren?t alarmed.

I'm a police officer. I have a vested interest in making the public feel safe. I am biased by a profound belief that every officer on my department has one goal in mind: to do their job as best they can, everyday. We worked hard this year. We'll continue to work hard everyday of the new year, trying to lower the crime rate even more.

You can join the bandwagon of people putting Dallas at the top of the list. But honestly, I feel much safer walking the streets of Dallas than I do LA, New Orleans, Detroit or even Modesto, California.

Do your part to make 2007 a great year for Dallas. Get involved in a crime watch group. Volunteer in your community. Make a small difference for your neighborhood, because it adds up to big changes for Dallas.
 

A DPD Officer.