Stan Aten

Last night, I had a strange dream about the Trinity River, heavy rain and an earthquake. The basic plot, a magazine had done a story of what would happen to Dallas (flooding wise) if a hurricane from the Gulf settled over Dallas at the same time there was a earthquake which cracked the levees. It was not a pretty sight unless you like lots of waterfront property.

This got me thinking when I woke up. There have been a number of minor quakes in the last year or so in the Mid-Cities which could be triggered by all the drilling for natural gas. They should have no impact on levee integrity. However, there is a potential big quake that might have an impact. It would center on the New Madrid fault in Missouri. This fault has a history of massive quakes. The last ones took place in 1811 and 1812, and changed the course of the Mississippi. The quakes were felt as far away as Boston. Dallas is a lot closer to this fault than Boston.

Recent earthquakes

4000 earthquake reports since 1974

The zone remains active today. In recent decades minor earthquakes have continued.^[7] New forecasts estimate a 7 to 10 percent chance, in the next 50 years, of a repeat of a major earthquake like those that occurred in 1811-1812, which likely had magnitudes of between 7.5 and 8.0. There is a 25 to 40 percent chance, in a 50-year time span, of a magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake.^[8]

Understanding of this earthquake zone is growing slowly in comparison to awareness of the San Andreas fault.

Here is a link to the Wikpedia article regarding this earthquake zone. The fault is just on the other side of Arkansas, so it is not that far away -- a few hundred miles.